“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. ”
Niels Bohr –Physics Nobel Prize 1922
Bernard Bajolet (born 21 May 1949) is a French diplomat. On 10 April 2013, Bernard Bajolet was appointed by the Council of Ministers as Director General for External Security (DGSE). Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today
On 15 December 2016, Bernard Bajolet gave the closing speech of the Seventh Strategic Research National Conference at the French Military Academy.
The title of his speech was: “Thinking about Future Conflicts.”
Bajolet stated that the DGSE has improved the quality and quantity of its Intelligence collecting. But he admitted that his Agency has failed in predicting most recent and current issues such as the Arab Spring, the Georgian and Ukrainian crisis and the rise of the Islamic State.
Bajolet stated that better tools are needed to anticipate future crisis. Intelligence Agencies but also Universities, ‘Think Tanks’ and the Strategic Research Centre should collaborate on this project.
After a short pause, Bajolet added:
But I will tell you a secret. The DGSE produced a note dated December 2015. The title of the note is: ‘US Presidential Election:Victory of Mr Trump. What are the consequences?‘
Not only, the DGSE had considered/anticipated Trump’s victory but the Agency invited French officials to think about and to prepare themselves for such eventuality.