The Rise of the CFC — An Atmospheric Spy Thriller [UPDATE: Shame on China]

“It appears that emissions of CFC-11 have increased in recent years, which is quite a surprise given the fact that production has been phased out — reportedly.  I think it’s the most surprising thing I’ve seen in my 27 years of making measurements of trace gases in the atmosphere.”

Stephen Montzka — NOAA scientist 

“We were absolutely gobsmacked to find that [Chinese]  companies very openly confirmed using CFC-11 while acknowledging it was illegal. The fact that they were so blasé about it, the fact that they told us very openly how pervasive it is in the market, these were shocking findings for us.”

Avipsa Mahapatra — Environmental Investigations Agency

Data from an NOAA study shows that emissions of CFC-11 — as calculated using two different models — rose after 2012, even though production was supposedly phased out.  (NOAA)

A real life Dr EVIL is producing thousands of tons of a banned chemical, threatening the recovery of Earth’s badly damaged ozone layer. Scientists believe that industrial amounts of CFC-11 are illegally produced ‘somewhere’ in the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps in Eastern Asia since 2012. Notice the irony. Porton Down and OPCW scientists can trace the origin of a few nano-grams of ‘novichok’ to a Russian laboratory in just a few days. But, after 6 years, nobody has identified the production site(s) of thousands of tons of a life-threatening banned chemical. UPDATE (July 9 2018) — The culprits have been identified; they are Chinese foam companies. Follow us on Twitter: @Intel_Today

RELATED POST: One Year Ago — CIA : “Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

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RELATED POST: Salisbury Incident — OPCW Corrects Own Director Over Novichok

UPDATE (July 9 2018) — Cheap Chinese home insulation material made mostly for domestic purpose is mostly — perhaps entirely — responsible for the rise.

The Environmental Investigations Agency (EIA) found widespread use of CFC-11 in China, even though the chemical was fully banned back in 2010.

Experts had feared that the rise was the clue of a secret nuclear bombs project [Uranium enrichment plant]. The truth is less dramatic but no less disturbing.

“CFC-11 makes a very efficient ‘blowing agent’ for polyurethane foam, helping it to expand into rigid thermal insulation that’s used in houses to cut energy bills and reduce carbon emissions.

Researchers from the EIA, a green campaign group, contacted foam manufacturing factories in 10 different provinces across China. From their detailed discussions with executives in 18 companies, the investigators concluded that the chemical is used in the majority of the polyurethane insulation the firms produce.

One seller of CFC-11 estimated that 70% of China’s domestic sales used the illegal gas. The reason is quite simple – CFC-11 is better quality and much cheaper than the alternatives.”

Dr Stephen Montzka from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) told BBC News:

“The pervasiveness of the use of CFC-11 that seems apparent in China based on their survey is quite amazing, although it is hard for me to assess the accuracy of the emission estimate they make to know if it is indeed likely that this activity can explain all or most of what we are observing in the global atmosphere.”

EIA’s calculations show that emission estimates associated with the level of use reported by these Chinese companies explain the majority of these no longer mysterious CFC emissions.

END of UPDATE

According to a study, published in Nature on Wednesday (May 16 2018), the atmospheric level of trichlorofluoromethane — also known as CFC-11 — is not declining as quickly as expected.

Scientists with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration believe that someone is producing tons of CFC-11, a ozone-depleting chemical banned by the Montreal Protocol. The Treaty was agreed on 16 September 1987, and entered into force on 1 January 1989.

“A simple model analysis of our findings suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 giga-grams per year (25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production being close to zero since 2006. “

The illicit emissions are probably coming from ‘somewhere in Eastern Asia’, but nothing else is known about the offender.

Based on an analysis of measurements from 12 different sites, the scientists concluded that CFC-11 emissions started to increase after 2012.

The U.N. Ozone Secretariat says it is critical to “identify the causes of these emissions and take necessary action.”

“It is important to note that these findings also highlight the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, its institutions and mechanisms, with science at their core.

So long as scientists remain vigilant, new production or emission of ozone-depleting chemicals will not go unnoticed.”

Emissions of ozone-eating chemical rising

REFERENCES

NOAA finds rising emissions of ozone-destroying chemical banned by Montreal Protocol — University of Colorado at Boulder

Ozone hole mystery: China insulating chemical said to be source of rise — BBC News (July 9 2018)

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The Rise of the CFC — An Atmospheric Spy Thriller

The Rise of the CFC — An Atmospheric Spy Thriller [UPDATE: Shame on China]

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