Intelligence Matters — When Will China Overtake the U.S. Economy ?

“The projections suggest China’s gross domestic product will stand at US$26 trillion in 2030, up from US$14.1 trillion today. The U.S. meanwhile will see its GDP rise more slowly to US$25.2 trillion from US$20.4 trillion.”

Bloomberg News (September 25 2018)

“GDP, after all, is just population times productivity. The U.S. has long been the No. 1 economy with the No. 3 population because the productivity of our labor and capital has been so enormously greater than productivity in China or India. What’s happening, simple yet profound, is that other countries are catching up to our productivity. China and India still have a very long way to go, but obviously they needn’t match us to exceed our GDP; with populations over four times ours, they only need to achieve one-quarter of our productivity. That’s what they’re in the process of doing.”

Fortune (February 2017)

“Unlike the Cold War, it’s about who is going to be the global leader – first with the biggest economy, and out of that will come political influence. But then secondarily – who is the most innovative economy and creating the industries of the future. Ultimately it’s an economic and technological competition.”

Michael Vickers — Former Head of Pentagon Intelligence (November 21 2018)

China is on course to be the world’s biggest economy by 2030, according to analysis made by economists at HSBC Holdings Plc in a new study of 75 nations published in September 2018. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

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Intel Today would like to know what you think!

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a period of time, often annually or quarterly.

Nominal GDP estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a whole country or region, and to make international comparisons.

The Dynamic Graph (Data Visualization) Shows the Top 10 Countries with Most GDP from 1960 to 2017. This Country GDP Ranking includes countries such as, United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, etc.

By the way, India is expected to pass Japan and Germany to become the third-largest economy at about the same time (2030).

A 2017 study by PriceWaterhouse Coopers forecasts that China’s economy will be bigger than America’s before 2030 (maybe well before then) and India’s will also be bigger before 2050. The U.S. will rank third, and in fourth place, the researchers speculated, could be Indonesia.

China, India, the U.S., Indonesia—do you notice anything about that list? Tomorrow’s ranking of countries by GDP is today’s ranking by population.

In an interview (on Nov. 21 2018) with Intelligence Matters host and CBS News senior national security contributor Michael Morell, Vickers — who served as under-secretary of defense for intelligence during the Obama administration — called China “by far the greatest, most challenging long-term threat” to the U.S.

Vickers added that the likelihood that China would remain a viable competitor could depend on Beijing’s ability to maintain political stability and cohesion even if its economic momentum begins to wane.

Vickers believes that China has enjoy an “economic miracle” over several decades that’s almost unprecedented in economic history.

As to whether that population size is an asset or a liability — China has four times the population of the U.S. — Vickers argued that it will be depending on how capital-intensive or technology-intensive future industries or military power is.

Top 10 Country GDP Ranking History (1960-2017)

REFERENCES

China will overtake the U.S. economy in less than 15 years, says HSBC, challenging Trump’s claim — Financial Post

Study: China Will Overtake the U.S. as World’s Largest Economy Before 2030 — Fortune

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Intelligence Matters — When Will China Overtake the U.S. Economy?

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